Archivo de la etiqueta: populismo

Can Dollarization Constrain a Populist Leader? The Case of Rafael Correa in Ecuador

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En un interesante paper, Absher, Grier, y Grier (2020) encuentran que todos los populismos de izquierda (durables -con el poder de llevar adelante una reforma constitucional) produjeron significativos costos económicos. Hay una excepción: Ecuador.

Como bien sostiene Edwards (2019), Ecuador ofrece un caso único de populismo dada su dolarización. Los gobiernos populistas (de izquierda) son proclives a usar «la maquinita». Esto no es posible en Ecuador. De acuerdo a Domingo Cavallo (2021, prólogo) por ejemplo, «no caben dudas de que la dolarización evitó que Ecuador llegara a la situación que hoy vive Venezuela, a pesar de que en todas las otras dimensiones las políticas de Rafael Correa no fueron muy diferentes a las de Hugo Chávez.»

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Emilio Ocampo: The Economic Analysis of Populism

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Uno de los temas políticos relevantes en Argentina, y también en Latino América, es el del populismo.

Emilio Ocampo tiene interestantes trabajos sobre este tema (por ejemplo aquí y aquí). Recientemente ha publicado un paper donde analiza la literatura económica que trata el tema del populismo.

El trabajo es muy completo e interesante, recomendable para quienes tengan interés es un análisis serio sobre este tema.

Abstract

Although the application of the conceptual and analytical framework of economics to the study of populism is still in its infancy, great advances have been made in recent years. This paper reviews some key contributions behind this progress. When analyzing populism, economists face two methodological hurdles: lack of consensus and clarity about its definition and reconciling the populist vote with voter rationality. The former has plagued sociologists and political scientists for decades. As to the latter, it raises a conundrum: if populist policies are detrimental to economic growth, as most economists agree, the vote for a populist candidate suggests some irrationality or inefficiency in the political markets. The works reviewed in this paper propose alternative approaches to address both issues. The most promising line of research in the economic analysis of populism draws concepts from other social sciences such political theory, sociology, history and social psychology.

Acceder al paper en la página del CEMA.

WP: An Index of Latin American Populism

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Uno de los problemas en los estudios sobre el populismo es que no hay un «indice» de cuánto populismo hay en las políticas de un país. Esto limita la capacidad de análisis, dado que los casos de populismo deben tratarse como un «switch» (zeros o unos), sin un «dimmer» que capture cambios marginales.

En este trabajo con mi colega Alexandre Padilla desarrollamos un índice de populismo para Latino América. Hay que subrayar lo dificil de desarrollar un bien indicar sobre populismo. No obstante, y con inspiración del indicador que desarrolló Emilio Ocampo para Argentina, hicimos el ejercicio para unos 12 países de Latino América.

This paper builds a populism index to study to impact of commodity prices and economic crisis on Latin American populism in the early 21st century. Panel data analysis shows some evidence that both, commodity prices and economic crisis, are correlated with an increase in populist policies.

Acceder al paper en SSRN.

Extinción de dominio por DNU: La política del revanchismo

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Hace unos días Mauricio Macri firmó un controversial decreto de necesidad y urgencia (DNU) al través del cual se acelera la extinción de dominio (la figura legal sería de confiscación) de bienes adquiridos aún bajo sospecha (sin condena firme) de corrupción (los documentos se encuentran aquí y aquí). El decreto es controversial por un número de motivos, principalmente por ser muy posiblemente inconstitucional. Varios constitucionalistas se han expresado sobre esta cuestión (abogados especialistas en el tema están invitados a comentar en este post). Lo curioso, por no decir preocupante, son las reacciones en defensa que se dieron desde el gobierno y desde varios defensores de Cambiemos. Se percibe un entusiasmo revanchista que no es sano para las instituciones.

Antes de hacer una mención sobre este revanchismo, qué dicen los constitucionalistas consultados por los medios sobre este DNU (aquí, aquí, y aquí)?

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WP: A Panel Data Analysis of Latin American Populism

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Nuevo working paper sobre populismo con Alexandre Padilla. En esta ocasión realizamos un análisis de panel sobre cinco países «populistas» en Latino América. Los resultados coinciden con los del control sintético de Grier y Maynard (2016) para Venezuela.

This paper studies the impact of 21st century populism in Latin America on income and human development. We find a significant economic cost of populism that is consistent with other studies using a different methodology than ours. Our sample consists of five Latin American countries representative of populist governments: Argentina (2003 – 2015), Bolivia (since 2006), Ecuador (since 2007), Nicaragua (since 2007), and Venezuela (since 1999).

Acceder al borrador en SSRN.

A (Preliminary) Populism Index for Latin America: 1996 – 2016

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Populism has seen a comeback in Latin America at the turn of the century. Lately, it has seen a resurgence in Europe (and the U.S.?) as well. Even though populism has been traditionally difficult to define, a number of statements and hypothesis are associated with these political movements. For instance, that the cyclical price of commodities is related to populist policies in Latin America (Ocampo, 2015), or that populism is a kick-back of globalization (Rodrik, 2018).

Some of these arguments and thesis require some kind of measurement, or index, of populism. Sometimes it is not enough to say that Argentina, or Venezuela, or any chosen country, has a populist government. Sometimes a proxy of how much populism is in place is needed. I know of only two attempts to offer a populism index. One is by Ocampo, specifically developed for the case of Argentina (the above linked paper and in his book «Entrampados en la Farsa»). The other one is by Hawkins (2009). The issue with Hawkin’s measure is that looks at the rhetoric of politicians rather than actual policy. Ocampo points to some odd results of Hawkin’s exercise, for instance, Menem’s administration being more populist than Kirchner’s administration. The challenge is to go from populist rhetoric to populist policy actually executed. A president may have a very strong populist rhetoric, but how much of that is actually translated into policy?

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WP: Latin American Populism in the 21st Century

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Junto a Alex Padilla estudiamos el impacto económico e institucional del populismo en cinco países latinoamericanos en el siglo 21.

Abstract

This paper offers an economic and institutional assessment of 21st-century Latin American populism, particularly in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, and Venezuela. We find that populism fails to offer the significant economic and social improvements that leaders promise and voters hope for. Instead, it produces a marked deterioration of economic and political institutions.

Acceder al paper en SSRN.

NOL: Digging Deeper into Populism: A Short Reply to Derril Watson

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Respuesta a Derril Watson sobre my post de populismo en Latino America.

Derril Watson offer some critical remarks on my short post about populism in Latin America. In short, Watson is arguing that (1) I’m stating something obvious (populism diminishes economic freedom) and (2) that I’m wrong when I say that populism fails to produce economic growth.

Seems I haven’t been quite clear, because I state none of the above. The intention of my post is not to show that populism decreases economic freedom, I think this is uncontroversial. The point of the post is to show, with a very simple calculation, how fast economic freedom is reduced. I might be wrong, but I have the impression that most individuals do not realize how fast they can loose their economic liberties under this type of government. This is the message carried in the title of the post “How fast does populism destroy economic freedom in Latin America?” rather than “Does populism destroy economic freedom in Latin America?”

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