Nuevo libro: Populismo, Restricciones Constitucionales y Dolarización Oficial en Argentina – Osvaldo Schenone, Jorge Avila y Adrián Ravier

Este libro tiene tres propósitos: primero, caracterizar el fenómeno del constitucionalismo popular y ubicar dentro de él al populismo; segundo, ilustrarlo con ejemplos de Argentina en el siglo XX y tercero, proponer una manera de blindar el sistema monetario de las consecuencias del déficit reiterado y creciente que caracteriza al constitucionalismo popular.

Disponible a la venta aquí.

The Chicago Boys and the Revival of Classical Liberal Economics in Chile – Axel Kaiser

According to a persistent narrative, the ideas behind the free market revolution led by the so-called “Chicago Boys” in Chile were imported from the United States. This narrative is wrong. Free market liberalism has been a substantial part of Chile’s intellectual and institutional tradition since the middle of the 1800s.

Read here.

Inflación en Guatemala, 1961-95 – Julio H. Cole

Abstract:

En este trabajo se efectúa un análisis estadístico de la inflación anual en Guatemala desde 1961. El enfoque teórico para el análisis se encuadra dentro de la llamada «teoría cuantitativa del dinero» (también conocida como «teoría monetarista» o «monetarismo»). Esta teoría postula a largo plazo una relación estable entre tres variables macroeconómicas muy importantes: el cambio porcentual en el índice de precios (o sea la tasa de inflación, P, el cambio porcentual en la masa monetaria (la tasa de crecimiento monetario, M) y el cambio porcentual en el PIB a precios constantes (la tasa de crecimiento real, Y).

Leer aquí.

RAÍCES Y ETAPAS EN LA HISTORIA DE LA ESCUELA AUSTRIACA – Adrián Ravier

Este artículo se propone estudiar las raíces del pensamiento de los autores de la Escuela Austriaca, y las distintas etapas evolutivas que surgieron desde su fundación. En este sentido se destacan raíces en los pensadores pre-socráticos de la Antigua Grecia, en la propiedad privada defendida por Aristóteles, en Juan de Mariana y la Escuela de Salamanca, en las contribuciones del irlandés Richard Cantillón, en la Fisiocracia y el laissez faire francés, en el pensamiento escocés de Adam Smith, David Hume y Adam Ferguson y en algunos autores de la Escuela Clásica británica que reunió a los «primeros economistas teóricos» a partir del último cuarto del siglo xviii. Además, podría destacarse con cierto paralelismo cronológico a los autores clásicos de las Ciencias Políticas, que desarrollaron una literatura específica sobre los límites al poder y el control al Leviatán, nutriendo e influenciando los escritos de filosofía política de los autores austriacos. La tradición austriaca, sinembargo, surge como «Escuela» en Viena recién a fines del siglo xix, tomando en general a 1871 como el año de su fundación. Su máximo esplendor lo alcanza entre la segunda y tercera década del siglo xx especialmente con las contribuciones de Ludwig von Mises y Friedrich Hayek, aunque luego —entre 1940 y 1970- sus autores principales caen en el aislamiento. El resurgimiento de los años 1970 le devuelve a esta Escuela algo de protagonismo, abriendo poco después una etapa de oportunidades para desarrollos modernos en distintos campos de estudio de la economía. Concluimos el trabajo con algunasreflexiones acerca de la actualidad de la Escuela, con mayor presencia de sus seguidores en las universidades y también en revistas científicas.

Acceda aquí.

Are Free Market Fiduciary Media Possible? On the Nature of Money, Banking, and Money Production in the Free Market Order – Kristoffer J. Mousten Hansen

Abstract: Recent debates in monetary theory have centered on so-called free banking
and the role of banks in providing money in the form of fiduciary media in a pure
market economy. This paper examines how and to what extent fiduciary media can
emerge in a pure market economy. Based on the theory of value, it is argued that
those economists are mistaken who claim that money substitutes must in all cases be
interpreted as being money titles. Those economists too are mistaken, however, who
claim a large role for the circulation of fiduciary media in a pure market economy.
It is argued that holding fiduciary media in one’s cash balance is an entrepreneurial
error, as fiduciary media by their nature do not have the qualities people demand in
holding money. Money is the comparatively most certain good and the present good par excellence, qualities that fiduciary media do not have. Holding fiduciary media
instead of money is therefore an entrepreneurial error, and like all errors in the free
market, it will tend to be eliminated in the process of entrepreneurial profit and loss,
leading to the virtual disappearance of all fiduciary media from the market economy.

Read here.

Estimating the Impact of the Covid-19 Emergency on Tax Revenues in Guatemala: A Time Series Approach – Julio H. Cole

Abstract

Applications of time series models serve two different purposes: (1) as forecasting techniques, they are used to project the trajectory of a variable of interest during a certain number of future periods; (2) in the analysis of interventions, they are used to evaluate the effect of a significant disturbance on the process being studied. We use both types of application to study monthly tax revenues in Guatemala. In Section 2 we use data for 2010-2019 in order to compare two alternative models: (a) the Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) model, and (b) the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model. In Section 3 we use post-2019 data to
estimate the fiscal effects of the emergency measures implemented to contain the Covid-19 pandemic.

Read here.

Milton Friedman’s Views on Method and Money Reconsidered in Light of the Housing Bubble – Joseph Salerno

Abstract: This paper argues that Milton Friedman’s failed to recognize the asset bubbles leading up to the financial crisis of 2007-2008. It attributes this failure to the inductivist method that Friedman and Anna Schwartz used to formulate the quantity theory at the heart of the doctrine of monetarism. The “clinical method” used by Friedman and Schwartz was derived from Wesley C. Mitchell’s work on business cycles and was not the method that Friedman propounded in his famous essay on positive economics. The clinical method of theory construction, because it relies heavily on statistical correlations between the money supply and other aggregate variables, led to a simplistic and truncated theory of the monetary transmission mechanism which completely neglected its complex “microeconomic” network of channels and pathways, particularly as they relate to the financial markets and the structure of capital and production.

Read here.

New book by Alan Futerman e Ivo Sarjanovic

“Commodities as an Asset Class”

Habemus tapam! 😀
To be published Nov 23rd

« Their book is an essential reference for monetary economists and macroeconomists, and also for those who deal practically and frequently in real world financial markets. »
From John B. Taylor’s foreword.
John B. Taylor is the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford University, and the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics at Stanford’s Hoover Institution

“All my trading career I have heard that commodities are a good hedge against inflation. It was something that no one ever questioned. Now, in this excellent study, the authors do exactly that. They find that, as is sometimes the case, collective wisdom is flawed. Commodities are not as good an inflation hedge as you might think. I recommend this book to financial professionals and investors who are looking to protect themselves against inflation. As always, keep an open mind and question everything.”
Jonathan Kingsman – Author of various books on agriculture commodities and blogger in Commodity Conversations

« For the entire careers of most finance professionals in developed economies, inflation remained theoretical and, if present, transitory and specific. In a globalized world, Asian factories met every consumer demand, while technology boosted everything from outputs to yields. Suddenly, the economic sickness of high inflation is stalking every economy. And with that, finance professionals and pundits have dusted off the playbook and are again heralding commodities as the great protective hedge. But is it? Mr. Sarjanovic and Mr. Futerman’s book is a timely, clear-eyed analysis of this heuristic judgement, demonstrating that the commodity-inflation correlation is far more complex and not necessarily the universal panacea being promoted. On a micro level, the tools and products for passive investment in commodities bare hidden costs in their structure which can defeat their purpose. On a macro level, commodities follow their own cycle, driven by investment and GDP growth, and in this great oscillation not all commodities follow the same path. And lest we forget, we are at the start of a structural revolution as great as the industrial revolution – energy transition – which will fundamentally reshape the world’s commodity basket. Who can say how that will play out? A tour de force – crucial reading for commodity and investment professionals alike.”
Paul Chapman – Host of the HC Insider Podcast

“A powerful and timely treatment of commodities market trading in an age of renewed inflation. Meticulously researched and supported by strong empirics, this book makes clear that traders, financial analysts and investors must work hard to engage with market fundamentals and should recognise that commodities are not always a good inflation hedge. Commodities as an asset class is an important and highly recommended text on commodities market trading.”
Professor Kevin Dowd – Durham University Business School

https://www.amazon.com/Commodities-Asset-Class-Inflation-Liberalism/dp/3031173996

The Rules of Reason: COVID-19, Buchanan, and Hayek – Rosolino Candela and Peter Jacobsen

Abstract: This paper presents a reassessment of the policy measures taken to combat the effects of COVID-19. It addresses the following question: does the threat of pandemic justify the sacrifice of legal and political principles for the sake of expediency? We do so by filtering the unintended consequences of price controls through the lens of constitutional political economy as understood by James Buchanan and F. A. Hayek. We argue that constitutional rules provide rules for reason. The reason for constitutional rules is not only to provide constraints on arbitrary discretion, but also to provide the epistemic preconditions that harness and guide the creative powers of individuals required for recovery from pandemic. We illustrate this point by reframing price controls as a violation of the U. S. Constitution,
particularly the First Amendment. Thus, if prices are understood to be a form of communication across individuals, then upholding constitutional principles should not be
abandoned but reinforced during times of crises.

Read here.