WP: An Index of Latin American Populism

Uno de los problemas en los estudios sobre el populismo es que no hay un “indice” de cuánto populismo hay en las políticas de un país. Esto limita la capacidad de análisis, dado que los casos de populismo deben tratarse como un “switch” (zeros o unos), sin un “dimmer” que capture cambios marginales.

En este trabajo con mi colega Alexandre Padilla desarrollamos un índice de populismo para Latino América. Hay que subrayar lo dificil de desarrollar un bien indicar sobre populismo. No obstante, y con inspiración del indicador que desarrolló Emilio Ocampo para Argentina, hicimos el ejercicio para unos 12 países de Latino América.

This paper builds a populism index to study to impact of commodity prices and economic crisis on Latin American populism in the early 21st century. Panel data analysis shows some evidence that both, commodity prices and economic crisis, are correlated with an increase in populist policies.

Acceder al paper en SSRN.

WP: The Grecian Horse II

Borrador, junto a “Alex” Padilla de The Grecian Horse. En esta serie de papers estudiamos si los inmigrantes importan “mala” instituciones a los Estados Unidos de sus países de origen.

Abstract

In recent years, in response to an increasing literature pointing to the economic deadweight loss associated with immigration restrictions, a literature has emerged pointing to the negative economic repercussions on economic growth would increasing immigration from countries with poor institutions have on the quality of the host country’s institutions when these immigrants import their institutions into their host countries (Borjas, 2014, 2015). Since then economists have attempted to test whether immigrants have a negative impact on their host country’s institutions (Clark et al., 2015; Powell, Nowrasteh, and Clark, 2017; Padilla and Cachanosky, 2018). This paper builds on Padilla and Cachanosky (2018) and examines how immigrants grouped according to the Economic Freedom of the World quartile their country of origin was ranked at time of the census may impact the economic institutions of the states as measured by Economic Freedom of North America index. Our results show that, in the short run, we do observe that the relationship between migrants originating from countries with poor economic institutions and economic freedom is negative, but, in the longer run, that relationship becomes positive, particularly, in the area of labor market freedom. On the other hand, in the longer run, the relationship between migrants coming from most economically free countries and economic freedom is negative. Our results are robust to various specifications.

Acceder al paper en SSRN.

WP: A Panel Data Analysis of Latin American Populism

Nuevo working paper sobre populismo con Alexandre Padilla. En esta ocasión realizamos un análisis de panel sobre cinco países “populistas” en Latino América. Los resultados coinciden con los del control sintético de Grier y Maynard (2016) para Venezuela.

This paper studies the impact of 21st century populism in Latin America on income and human development. We find a significant economic cost of populism that is consistent with other studies using a different methodology than ours. Our sample consists of five Latin American countries representative of populist governments: Argentina (2003 – 2015), Bolivia (since 2006), Ecuador (since 2007), Nicaragua (since 2007), and Venezuela (since 1999).

Acceder al borrador en SSRN.

A (Preliminary) Populism Index for Latin America: 1996 – 2016

Populism has seen a comeback in Latin America at the turn of the century. Lately, it has seen a resurgence in Europe (and the U.S.?) as well. Even though populism has been traditionally difficult to define, a number of statements and hypothesis are associated with these political movements. For instance, that the cyclical price of commodities is related to populist policies in Latin America (Ocampo, 2015), or that populism is a kick-back of globalization (Rodrik, 2018).

Some of these arguments and thesis require some kind of measurement, or index, of populism. Sometimes it is not enough to say that Argentina, or Venezuela, or any chosen country, has a populist government. Sometimes a proxy of how much populism is in place is needed. I know of only two attempts to offer a populism index. One is by Ocampo, specifically developed for the case of Argentina (the above linked paper and in his book “Entrampados en la Farsa”). The other one is by Hawkins (2009). The issue with Hawkin’s measure is that looks at the rhetoric of politicians rather than actual policy. Ocampo points to some odd results of Hawkin’s exercise, for instance, Menem’s administration being more populist than Kirchner’s administration. The challenge is to go from populist rhetoric to populist policy actually executed. A president may have a very strong populist rhetoric, but how much of that is actually translated into policy?

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WP: Latin American Populism in the 21st Century

Junto a Alex Padilla estudiamos el impacto económico e institucional del populismo en cinco países latinoamericanos en el siglo 21.

Abstract

This paper offers an economic and institutional assessment of 21st-century Latin American populism, particularly in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, and Venezuela. We find that populism fails to offer the significant economic and social improvements that leaders promise and voters hope for. Instead, it produces a marked deterioration of economic and political institutions.

Acceder al paper en SSRN.

WP: The Grecian Horse (Does Immigration Lead to the Deterioration of American Institutions?)

Si bien existe cierto consenso sobre los beneficios económicos de la libre inmigración, una de las objeciones mas importantes es de hecho cultural. Borjas, por ejemplo, argumenta que una fuerte inmigración (a Estados Unidos) puede afectar sus instituciones produciendo un perjuicio económico.

Junto a Alexandre Padilla estudiamos el efecto de stock y flujo de inmigrantes en los grados de liberad económica de los distinto estados dentro de Estados Unidos. En el estudio no encontramos evidencia de que ni el stock ni flujo de inmigrantes estén correlacionados con un deterioro en las libertades económicas. Debajo se encuentra el link al borrador del articulo, cuya versión final saldrá publicado en el journal Public Choice.

Concerns about the institutional impact of immigration, particularly, in the United States, are not new. We can trace them all the way back to Thomas Jefferson and Alexander Hamilton. More recently, in response to a literature that questions the efficiency of current immigration restrictions, Borjas (2015) expresses similar concerns about the institutional impact of immigrants coming from countries with poor institutions. Using economic freedom as proxy for institutional quality of the American states since 1980, using several estimation techniques and control variables, our results show that concerns about the institutional impact of immigrants are so far not supported.

Acceder al articulo en SSRN.

LIBERTAS: SEGUNDA ÉPOCA, 2017 | Volumen 2, Número 1

El Método Científico en la Teoría Económica de A. A. Cournot
María Blanco
pp. 3-23

Emprendores, República y Democracia
Alejandro Gómez
pp. 25-44

Incidencia y Efectos de los Impuestos
Gustavo Hasperué
pp. 45-65

Economic and Philosophical Implications of Hayek’s Knowledge Problem
Nicolás Cachanosky & Alexandre Padilla
pp. 67-79

The Final Nail in the Cross of Gold
Ryan H. Murphy & Eric L. Li
pp. 81-89

WP: The Grecian Horse: Does Immigration Lead to the Deterioration of American Institutions?

Paper con Alexandre Padilla donde estudiamos cuál es el impacto (si es que lo hay) de los extranjeros en Estados Unidos. Sucede, como sostiene Borjas, que los inmigrantes traen consigo “malas” institutiones que pueden dañar el desempeño económico y social del país anfitrion?

Concerns about the institutional impact of immigration, particularly, in the United States, are not new. We can trace them all the way back to Thomas Jefferson and Alexander Hamilton. More recently, in response to a literature that questions the efficiency of current immigration restrictions, Borjas (2015) expresses similar concerns about the institutional impact of immigrants coming from countries with poor institutions. Using economic freedom as proxy for institutional quality of the American states since 1980, using several estimation techniques and control variables, our results show that concerns about the institutional impact of immigrants are so far not supported.

Bajar el paper de SSRN.

Libertas: Segunda Época. Volumen 2, Número 1

Ya se puede acceder al Volumen 2, Número 1, de LIBERTAS: SEGUNDA ÉPOCA. En esta ocasión con contribuciones de (1) María Blanco, (2) Alejandro Gómez, (3) Gustavo Hasperué, (4) Nicolás Cachanosky & Alexandre Padilla y (5) Ryan H. Murphy & Eric L. Li.

LIBERTAS: SEGUNDA ÉPOCA acepta papers a consideración, tanto en español como en inglés, de manera continúa.

WP: A Mathematical Version of Garrison’s Model

Junto a Alexandre Padilla (MSU Denver) desarrollamos una versión matemática del modelo de Garrison. Más preciso sería decir que hemos traducido los gráficos del modelo a sus ecuaciones equivalentes.

La motivación de este paper es ofreces un modelo de Garrison más flexible que su versión gráfica. Este modelo ha sido utilizado tanto en investigaciones teóricas como académicas, donde una de los problema que he percibido es su falta de flexibilidad al momento de querer agregar variables o lidiar con una versión más compleja del mismo. El paper ofrece un modelo matemático base sobre el cual se pueden agregar tantas variables como se desee (no se está restringido a tres dimensiones como un gráfico) y lidiar con funciones más complejas que las lineales utilizadas en el modelo, etc.

Abstract

We develop a simple mathematical version of Garrison’s model. The purpose to develop a mathematical framework is to (1) show how such representation can be used and (2) layout a path for future work that requires a more flexible version of Garrison’s treatment than the graphical exposition. While the graphical model is limited to three dimensions, a mathematical version can include more variables of interest. First, we develop the mathematical framework of Garrison’s treatment. Then we apply it to the cases of increase in savings, secular growth, and the Austrian business cycle theory.

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