"There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen." Frederic Bastiat
Luego de las crisis cambiarías que afectaron a la economía Argentina desde Abril/Mayo de este año, un recambio de autoridades en el equipo económico derivaron en un nuevo plan monetario y un acuerdo con el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI). El nuevo plan económico entró en vigencia en octubre de este año. A dos meses de haber implementado el nuevo plan, ya se puede comenzar a ver algunos resultados.
El nuevo plan monetario
El nuevo plan monetario (o «Plan Sandleris», por el nuevo presidente del BCRA) se constriye sobre metas de agregados monetarios y una nueva política cambiaria.
Paul Volcker takes issue with the Federal Reserve’s two-percent inflation target. He wonders why Fed officials have become so focused at a level of decimal precision on a target that cannot be hit so precisely. It is an old point, but one worth making.
The issue with inflation targeting is not merely one of precision, however. Just as important is how such a target is interpreted for policy making. Is it a symmetric target, in which case the Fed will try its best to achieve two-percent inflation each period? Is it contingent on past performance, in which case the Fed might try to make up for over- or under-shooting its target and thereby achieve two-percent inflation on average? Or, is it not really a target at all, but rather a ceiling—an upper bound on the rate of inflation that the Fed deems acceptable?
Bastante controversia ha generado la firma de un decreto de necesidad y urgencia (DNU) de Macri a partir del cuál el sector privado debe pagar un bono de fin de año por un monto de $5,000 a sus empleados. Sin siquiera pasar por el Congreso, el Presidente se ha metido en las finanzas del secto privado (con esto tampoco quiero decir que una medida así sería defendible de haber pasado por el Congreso; esa sería otra discusión).
Hay costos que van más allá de lo económico que deberían generar preocupación. Pero primero, un poco de contexto. La inflación se ha ubicado en valores significativamente mayorers a los esperados y deseados por el Indec con obvios efectos en el ingreso, pobreza, etc. Ante esta situación, los sindicatos respondieron exigiendo alguna medida en ayuda de los trabajadores bajo amenaza de paros. A la par, el gobierno debe mantener su plan de equilibrio fiscal (primario) como requisito de acuerdo con el Fondo Monetario Internacional.
Populism has seen a comeback in Latin America at the turn of the century. Lately, it has seen a resurgence in Europe (and the U.S.?) as well. Even though populism has been traditionally difficult to define, a number of statements and hypothesis are associated with these political movements. For instance, that the cyclical price of commodities is related to populist policies in Latin America (Ocampo, 2015), or that populism is a kick-back of globalization (Rodrik, 2018).
Some of these arguments and thesis require some kind of measurement, or index, of populism. Sometimes it is not enough to say that Argentina, or Venezuela, or any chosen country, has a populist government. Sometimes a proxy of how much populism is in place is needed. I know of only two attempts to offer a populism index. One is by Ocampo, specifically developed for the case of Argentina (the above linked paper and in his book «Entrampados en la Farsa»). The other one is by Hawkins (2009). The issue with Hawkin’s measure is that looks at the rhetoric of politicians rather than actual policy. Ocampo points to some odd results of Hawkin’s exercise, for instance, Menem’s administration being more populist than Kirchner’s administration. The challenge is to go from populist rhetoric to populist policy actually executed. A president may have a very strong populist rhetoric, but how much of that is actually translated into policy?
The Sound Money Project
Essay Contest is designed to promote scholarship in monetary and macro-
economics. More specifically, it aims to encourage those working at the
cutting edge of the discipline to consider the monetary institutions
that would reduce nominal disturbances and promote economic growth.
Prompt: In
1971, President Richard Nixon ended convertibility, thereby eliminating
the last vestiges of the gold standard. The classical gold standard,
which prevailed from 1873 to 1914, had anchored inflation expectations,
enabled longterm contracting, and promoted international trade. This
historical experience has prompted several reconsiderations of
resumption over the years, including the Gold Commission in 1980, the
International Financial Institution Advisory Commission of 1998, and,
more recently, calls for a Centennial Monetary Commission. What are the
merits of returning to the gold standard? Is such a system feasible
today?
Prizes: First Prize $10,000 Second Prize $2,000 Third Prize $1,000
Winners will also be invited to participate in the Sound Money Project annual meeting in Great Barrington, Massachusetts.
Eligibility: The
contest is open to graduate students, post-graduates, untenured
professors, and tenured professors from any discipline. Former winners
and current AIER fellows are ineligible. Former entrants are eligible,
but must submit new essays.
Rules: Essays
must be the sole and original work of the entrant and not previously
published. They should be in the format of a scholarly article. Any
standard citation format (e.g., MLA, APA, Chicago, Harvard, etc.) is
acceptable. Essays may either be written specifically for the contest or
arise from previous work (e.g., term papers, dissertations, research
projects, etc.). Essays shorter than 4,000 words or longer than 12,000
words will not be considered. AIER-affiliated scholars are ineligible.
The Mont Pelerin Society is increasing its efforts to involve younger
members in the society and to recruit new young guests who have the
potential to become members in the future. As part of that effort, the
society is organizing sessions at the 2019 regional meeting in Fort
Worth for scholars age 40 or younger. Scholars selected for inclusion in
this program will have their registration fee reduced and be eligible
for limited travel support.
We will consider submissions on all topics related to issues of interest to the society’s aims (https://www.montpelerin.org/montpelerin/mpsGoals.html)
but are particularly interested in papers that address contentious
issues where classical liberals often disagree. Plenary topics include:
monetary policy, immigration, the optimal size of government, policing,
foreign policy, welfare policy, regulating sexual behavior and
discrimination, and religion. Scholarly papers addressing these topics
are especially encouraged to apply.
The Mont Pelerin Society is increasing its efforts to involve younger
members in the society and to recruit new young guests who have the
potential to become members in the future. As part of that effort, the
society is organizing sessions at the 2019 regional meeting in Fort
Worth for scholars age 40 or younger. Scholars selected for inclusion in
this program will have their registration fee reduced and be eligible
for limited travel support.
We will consider submissions on all topics related to issues of interest to the society’s aims (https://www.montpelerin.org/montpelerin/mpsGoals.html)
but are particularly interested in papers that address contentious
issues where classical liberals often disagree. Plenary topics include:
monetary policy, immigration, the optimal size of government, policing,
foreign policy, welfare policy, regulating sexual behavior and
discrimination, and religion. Scholarly papers addressing these topics
are especially encouraged to apply.
These sessions will run during the concurrent sessions and will
feature short presentations (~ 12-15 minutes) by three to four young
scholars in each session. The proposals should be NEW research of the
style that one would present at professional association meeting in the
appropriate discipline.
Proposal will be evaluated on the importance of the topic proposed,
how it is addressed, how it fits within the meeting theme and plenary
program, and how it fits with other papers proposed by young scholars.
Unfortunately, program space scarcity makes it likely that many
proposals of merit will not be able to be placed on the program.
To propose a paper please send:
A title and proposed abstract of no more than 250 words
CV
Any requested travel financial support
To mps.youngscholars@ttu.edu
no later than November 1st. Successful applicants will be notified by
December 1st and will be expected to register for the conference.
Completed papers will be due by April 15th.
Tras varias semanas de incertidumbre y delicada situación económica, finalmente el gobierno llegó a un nuevo acuerdo con el Fondo Monetario Internacional. A la par del nuevo acuerdo, la nueva administración del BCRA anunció su nueva política monetaria y cambiaria.
Política Monetaria
El cambio en política monetaria consiste en abandonar las metas de inflación y adoptar una estricta meta de agregados monetarios. Las metas de inflación fueron un fracaso desde el inicio. No sólo fueron repetidamente incumplidas, sino que no lograron «anclar» o reducir las expectativas de inflación. De hecho, la última meta acordada co el FMI era superior a la inflación promedio del gobierno de C. F. de Kirchner. Difícil considerar estos resultados un éxito.
Sigue leyendo →
El último reporte del Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) muestra que en el primer año de Cambiemos Argentina ha perdido puntaje en el índice y caíido dos puestos en el ranking. Ahora Argentina figura como la tercer economía menos libre del mundo, ubicándose por encima sólo de Venezuela y Lybia. Algeria es el país que se ubica por encima de Argentina.
Punto de Vista Economico 