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Ayer cerró la reunión anual de APEE 2013, a la que afortunadamente pudimos asistir con Nicolás y varios profesores de la UFM. En unos días, compartiremos con los lectores nuestra experiencia.

Mientras tanto, dejo el documento de trabajo del artículo que presenté allí, junto con la presentación de powerpoint. Como siempre, los comentarios son bienvenidos.

Dynamic Monetary Theory and the Phillips Curve with a Positive Slope

Abstract:

Don Bellante and Roger W. Garrison (1988) compared two alternative approaches to monetary dynamics: those based on a vertical long-run Phillips Curve and those derived from analysis of Hayekian triangles. The conclusion the authors reached is that the only factor differentiating the two models is the “process” whereby the initial cause is converted into the final “neutral” effect. This article refutes that conclusion. To do so it suffices to demonstrate that the long-term effect of monetary policy is never neutral. While it is true that after the boom-bust cycle the economy returns to the natural rate of unemployment, the crucial point is that the “natural rate” at the end of the cycle is quite different from the one evident at the start. This requires an Austrian Phillips Curve with a positive slope.