Para algunos, la economía Argentina es un milagro. El milagro no es que el país siga en pie, el milagro es lo bien que le está yando al país en la economía post Covid-19. Ese es, resumido, el argumento de Stiglitz en una columna en Project Syndicate que no pasó desapercibida.

La nota en definitiva parece estar motivada a que el FMI sea flexible con Argentina y deje de lado las «vijas políticas de austeridad». Curiosamente la nota no menciona un potencial conflicto de interés: Stiglitz fue el supervisor de Guzmán en Columiba University cuando estaba haciendo su post-doctorado.

Mis comentario a la nota de Stiglitz:

Joseph E. Stiglitz offers a surprising statement about Argentina when he says that “thanks to the current government’s policies to strengthen the real economy, [Argentina] has been enjoying a remarkable recovery”. For everyone familiar with the Argentine economic situation, Stigtliz’s words are surprising. It takes special skills to see an economic miracle in a country on the brink of a major economic crisis.

A fake miracle

Stiglitz bases his argument on Argentina’s real GDP growth of 11.9% in Q3 of 2021. What goes unmentioned in his article is a 10.2% fall of Argentina’s GDP in the Q3 of 2020. This is important because is natural for a large growth rate to follow a large fall. The miracle looks even less impressive if we compare real GDP in Q3 of 2021 with that of 2019. What we find is GDP in Q3 of 2021 mere 0.5% higher than GDP in Q3 2019. More than a miracle, Argentina offers a textbook definition of recovery. Economic growth is an increase in output capacity and not a just a closing of the output gap*. If you did not know, Argentina stagnated in 2011 (notice the graph below taken from El Hub Económico).

Seguir leyendo en Economic Order Blog.